Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts

Sunday, 31 August 2014

History of Gold and Currency

History Of Gold With Relation To Currencies And Its Outlook

by: Mike Estrey


Much has been written about the current bull market in gold and how it compares to previous moves, in particular during the 1970s when the metal soared to at the time unimaginable heights.


On this basis it is worth looking at the background to the value story on gold, and this may shed some light on why its bull market may have significantly further to go for CFD traders in coming years.


The gold standard


The UK , which at the time was the world’s dominant economic powerhouse, adopted a gold standard in the early 19th century. Other currencies then looked to have gold backing, and towards the end of the century, various European countries joined the standard, though some chose for a time use a joint gold and silver standard.


The emerging strength of the US saw it adopt the standard in 1879, by making “greenbacks” that had been issued during the Civil War period convertible into gold, and the gold standard was formalised by legislation in 1900. On the outbreak of World War One, it was accepted by the whole of the developed world. This called for fixed exchange rates, with parities set for participating currencies in terms of gold, and it provided that any paper currency could on demand be exchanged for gold by its central bank


The system worked well having been designed to make each country adjust in terms of external deficits or surpluses in transactions between countries. Any deficit country would then have to surrender gold to cover its deficit, with the result that the volume of its money would be reduced, leading to lower prices, while the influx of that gold into the surplus economy would expand the volume of that country’s money and lead to higher prices.


This meant that there were effective pegs in the foreign exchange market, so that exchange rates would fluctuate only within very narrow limits determined by the costs of shipping and insuring gold.


US and UK comparisons in terms of gold


Up until 1914, the parity between the U.S. dollar and sterling was approximately $4.87, based on a U.S. official gold price of $20.67 per ounce and a U.K. official gold price of £ 4.24 per ounce, and the exchange rate would not fluctuate beyond about three cents above and below the mint parity, which represented the cost of shipping and insuring gold, since otherwise there would be arbitrage potential.


Although there were some gold transfers under the system, it was easier to adjust monetary policy to attract currencies, which might offset the financial impact of any import excess. Higher interest rates would usually have a deflationary effect in the deficit country aswell.


Under this system, participating countries needed to give an absolute priority to external adjustment over domestic objectives, so if there was a conflict between domestic and external objectives, policy tools might not be available to be used for domestic problems of recession, unemployment, or inflation. This reflected the prevailing economic philosophy that economies would tend naturally toward reasonably high levels of employment and reasonable price stability without such government policy actions.


The effect of the First World War


The four great economic powers, the US, UK, Germany, and France saw unchanged currency values up until the war. There were few barriers to gold shipments or capital controls in the major countries, and capital flows appeared to play a stabilising role.


After the outbreak of the First World War, each country needed to raise cash for the war effort, and at this stage they began to issue more and more bonds, some of which still exist today. These were domestically issued at the time and not backed by gold, but the promise to repay came from the central bank and was seen as rock solid. This was the beginning of what is known as fiat monetary policy, and which is widespread today.


The result of this was that as more and more paper was not backed by the common value of gold, floating exchange rates began. The US, which entered the war later than the others, had maintained gold convertibility, and soon the dollar floated against the other currencies, which were no longer convertible into dollars.


Dollar strength and weakness


Once the war ended there were significant economic problems in Europe, and exchange rates began to change rapidly, with many major currencies devaluing against the dollar.


This helped cement the US dominance of world trade, as the dollar had greatly improved its competitive strength over European currencies during the war.


In a reverse of what is happening today, within much of Europe and certainly in the UK there was a widespread desire to return to the stability of the gold standard, and growing concern over the attractiveness of the dollar, which was still convertible into gold, and of dollar-denominated assets. The pound thus went back on the gold standard, but this coincided with the Wall Street Crash and the beginning of the great depression, which highlighted the weaknesses in existing economic policy.


Following a disastrous five years back on the gold standard, the UK abandoned it in 1931, and others followed over the next few years. There were also problems in the US, and in 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt imposed a ban on US citizens buying, selling, or owning gold in order to kickstart the depressed economy. This was the birth of Keynesian policies which shaped much of economic policy in coming decades.


At the same rime, the Federal Reserve continued to sell gold to foreign central banks and government institutions, but the ban prevented hoarders from profiting after Congress devalued the dollar against gold in 1934.


This action raised the official price of gold by more than 65% to $35 per ounce. Only gold coins and certificates considered collectors’ items were exempt from this prohibition, and artistic and industrial users were allowed to deal in gold under a special Treasury license. Once the price rose, there was a mining boom, which saw major growth in gold output.


The 1970s


The licence to print money had been conveniently forgotten, despite the widely remembered problems in Germany’s Weimar republic in the 1920s, and just fifty years later, in 1971, President Nixon ended US dollar convertibility to gold. On the 31st December of that year, gold stood at $43.8 per ounce.


This finally ended the central role of gold in world currency systems and it then began a spectacular bull market as inflation raged and the value of paper currencies fell. Gold enjoyed a nine year bull market, with the price hitting a record of $850 per ounce against a background of an international crisis arising from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Islamic Revolution in Iran. If this was rebased to today, the all time high would be equivalent to $2,100 per ounce.


Why gold could go a lot, lot higher


Gold’s current bull market has lasted six years, during which it has risen around 200%. In the 1970s, gold peaked with a 2000% rise in just nine years, so this gives some food for thought.


Admittedly inflation art present is not the problem it was at the beginning of that decade, but don’t bet against major changes in the value of gold against paper currencies in the years to come. For long and short term CFD traders this creates a major opportunity to profit from a potential further major revaluation.


Source






The post History of Gold and Currency appeared first on Robert JR Graham.


Wednesday, 30 April 2014

History of Gold and Currency

History Of Gold With Relation To Currencies And Its Outlook

by: Mike Estrey


Gold Currency 1 W976YWZXO5 1024x768 300x225 History of Gold and Currency Much has been written about the current bull market in gold and how it compares to previous moves, in particular during the 1970s when the metal soared to at the time unimaginable heights.


On this basis it is worth looking at the background to the value story on gold, and this may shed some light on why its bull market may have significantly further to go for CFD traders in coming years.


The gold standard


The UK , which at the time was the world’s dominant economic powerhouse, adopted a gold standard in the early 19th century. Other currencies then looked to have gold backing, and towards the end of the century, various European countries joined the standard, though some chose for a time use a joint gold and silver standard.


The emerging strength of the US saw it adopt the standard in 1879, by making “greenbacks” that had been issued during the Civil War period convertible into gold, and the gold standard was formalised by legislation in 1900. On the outbreak of World War One, it was accepted by the whole of the developed world. This called for fixed exchange rates, with parities set for participating currencies in terms of gold, and it provided that any paper currency could on demand be exchanged for gold by its central bank


The system worked well having been designed to make each country adjust in terms of external deficits or surpluses in transactions between countries. Any deficit country would then have to surrender gold to cover its deficit, with the result that the volume of its money would be reduced, leading to lower prices, while the influx of that gold into the surplus economy would expand the volume of that country’s money and lead to higher prices.


This meant that there were effective pegs in the foreign exchange market, so that exchange rates would fluctuate only within very narrow limits determined by the costs of shipping and insuring gold.


US and UK comparisons in terms of gold


Up until 1914, the parity between the U.S. dollar and sterling was approximately $4.87, based on a U.S. official gold price of $20.67 per ounce and a U.K. official gold price of £ 4.24 per ounce, and the exchange rate would not fluctuate beyond about three cents above and below the mint parity, which represented the cost of shipping and insuring gold, since otherwise there would be arbitrage potential.


Although there were some gold transfers under the system, it was easier to adjust monetary policy to attract currencies, which might offset the financial impact of any import excess. Higher interest rates would usually have a deflationary effect in the deficit country aswell.


Under this system, participating countries needed to give an absolute priority to external adjustment over domestic objectives, so if there was a conflict between domestic and external objectives, policy tools might not be available to be used for domestic problems of recession, unemployment, or inflation. This reflected the prevailing economic philosophy that economies would tend naturally toward reasonably high levels of employment and reasonable price stability without such government policy actions.


The effect of the First World War


The four great economic powers, the US, UK, Germany, and France saw unchanged currency values up until the war. There were few barriers to gold shipments or capital controls in the major countries, and capital flows appeared to play a stabilising role.


After the outbreak of the First World War, each country needed to raise cash for the war effort, and at this stage they began to issue more and more bonds, some of which still exist today. These were domestically issued at the time and not backed by gold, but the promise to repay came from the central bank and was seen as rock solid. This was the beginning of what is known as fiat monetary policy, and which is widespread today.


The result of this was that as more and more paper was not backed by the common value of gold, floating exchange rates began. The US, which entered the war later than the others, had maintained gold convertibility, and soon the dollar floated against the other currencies, which were no longer convertible into dollars.


Dollar strength and weakness


Once the war ended there were significant economic problems in Europe, and exchange rates began to change rapidly, with many major currencies devaluing against the dollar.


This helped cement the US dominance of world trade, as the dollar had greatly improved its competitive strength over European currencies during the war.


In a reverse of what is happening today, within much of Europe and certainly in the UK there was a widespread desire to return to the stability of the gold standard, and growing concern over the attractiveness of the dollar, which was still convertible into gold, and of dollar-denominated assets. The pound thus went back on the gold standard, but this coincided with the Wall Street Crash and the beginning of the great depression, which highlighted the weaknesses in existing economic policy.


Following a disastrous five years back on the gold standard, the UK abandoned it in 1931, and others followed over the next few years. There were also problems in the US, and in 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt imposed a ban on US citizens buying, selling, or owning gold in order to kickstart the depressed economy. This was the birth of Keynesian policies which shaped much of economic policy in coming decades.


At the same rime, the Federal Reserve continued to sell gold to foreign central banks and government institutions, but the ban prevented hoarders from profiting after Congress devalued the dollar against gold in 1934.


This action raised the official price of gold by more than 65% to $35 per ounce. Only gold coins and certificates considered collectors’ items were exempt from this prohibition, and artistic and industrial users were allowed to deal in gold under a special Treasury license. Once the price rose, there was a mining boom, which saw major growth in gold output.


The 1970s


The licence to print money had been conveniently forgotten, despite the widely remembered problems in Germany’s Weimar republic in the 1920s, and just fifty years later, in 1971, President Nixon ended US dollar convertibility to gold. On the 31st December of that year, gold stood at $43.8 per ounce.


This finally ended the central role of gold in world currency systems and it then began a spectacular bull market as inflation raged and the value of paper currencies fell. Gold enjoyed a nine year bull market, with the price hitting a record of $850 per ounce against a background of an international crisis arising from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Islamic Revolution in Iran. If this was rebased to today, the all time high would be equivalent to $2,100 per ounce.


Why gold could go a lot, lot higher


Gold’s current bull market has lasted six years, during which it has risen around 200%. In the 1970s, gold peaked with a 2000% rise in just nine years, so this gives some food for thought.


Admittedly inflation art present is not the problem it was at the beginning of that decade, but don’t bet against major changes in the value of gold against paper currencies in the years to come. For long and short term CFD traders this creates a major opportunity to profit from a potential further major revaluation.


Source






Friday, 4 April 2014

A Brief History of the Book

by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.


1392666381 0cdcfa7a8b 300x225 A Brief History of the Book “The free communication of thought and opinion is one of the most precious rights of man; every citizen may therefore speak, write and print freely.”


(French National Assembly, 1789)


I. What is a Book?


UNESCO’s arbitrary and ungrounded definition of “book” is:


“”Non-periodical printed publication of at least 49 pages excluding covers”.


But a book, above all else, is a medium. It encapsulates information (of one kind or another) and conveys it across time and space. Moreover, as opposed to common opinion, it is – and has always been – a rigidly formal affair. Even the latest “innovations” are nothing but ancient wine in sparkling new bottles.


Consider the scrolling protocol. Our eyes and brains are limited readers-decoders. There is only that much that the eye can encompass and the brain interpret. Hence the need to segment data into cognitively digestible chunks. There are two forms of scrolling – lateral and vertical. The papyrus, the broadsheet newspaper, and the computer screen are three examples of the vertical scroll – from top to bottom or vice versa. The e-book, the microfilm, the vellum, and the print book are instances of the lateral scroll – from left to right (or from right to left, in the Semitic languages).


In many respects, audio books are much more revolutionary than e-books. They do not employ visual symbols (all other types of books do), or a straightforward scrolling method. E-books, on the other hand, are a throwback to the days of the papyrus. The text cannot be opened at any point in a series of connected pages and the content is carried only on one side of the (electronic) “leaf”. Parchment, by comparison, was multi-paged, easily browseable, and printed on both sides of the leaf. It led to a revolution in publishing and to the print book. All these advances are now being reversed by the e-book. Luckily, the e-book retains one innovation of the parchment – the hypertext. Early Jewish and Christian texts (as well as Roman legal scholarship) was written on parchment (and later printed) and included numerous inter-textual links. The Talmud, for example, is made of a main text (the Mishna) which hyperlinks on the same page to numerous interpretations (exegesis) offered by scholars throughout generations of Jewish learning.


Another distinguishing feature of books is portability (or mobility). Books on papyrus, vellum, paper, or PDA – are all transportable. In other words, the replication of the book’s message is achieved by passing it along and no loss is incurred thereby (i.e., there is no physical metamorphosis of the message). The book is like a perpetuum mobile. It spreads its content virally by being circulated and is not diminished or altered by it. Physically, it is eroded, of course – but it can be copied faithfully. It is permanent.


Not so the e-book or the CD-ROM. Both are dependent on devices (readers or drives, respectively). Both are technology-specific and format-specific. Changes in technology – both in hardware and in software – are liable to render many e-books unreadable. And portability is hampered by battery life, lighting conditions, or the availability of appropriate infrastructure (e.g., of electricity).


II. The Constant Content Revolution


Every generation applies the same age-old principles to new “content-containers”. Every such transmutation yields a great surge in the creation of content and its dissemination. The incunabula (the first printed books) made knowledge accessible (sometimes in the vernacular) to scholars and laymen alike and liberated books from the scriptoria and “libraries” of monasteries. The printing press technology shattered the content monopoly. In 50 years (1450-1500), the number of books in Europe surged from a few thousand to more than 9 million! And, as McLuhan has noted, it shifted the emphasis from the oral mode of content distribution (i.e., “communication”) to the visual mode.


E-books are threatening to do the same. “Book ATMs” will provide Print on Demand (POD) services to faraway places. People in remote corners of the earth will be able to select from publishing backlists and front lists comprising millions of titles. Millions of authors are now able to realize their dream to have their work published cheaply and without editorial barriers to entry. The e-book is the Internet’s prodigal son. The latter is the ideal distribution channel of the former. The monopoly of the big publishing houses on everything written – from romance to scholarly journals – is a thing of the past. In a way, it is ironic. Publishing, in its earliest forms, was a revolt against the writing (letters) monopoly of the priestly classes. It flourished in non-theocratic societies such as Rome, or China – and languished where religion reigned (such as in Sumeria, Egypt, the Islamic world, and Medieval Europe).


With e-books, content will once more become a collaborative effort, as it has been well into the Middle Ages. Authors and audience used to interact (remember Socrates) to generate knowledge, information, and narratives. Interactive e-books, multimedia, discussion lists, and collective authorship efforts restore this great tradition. Moreover, as in the not so distant past, authors are yet again the publishers and sellers of their work. The distinctions between these functions is very recent. E-books and POD partially help to restore the pre-modern state of affairs. Up until the 20th century, some books first appeared as a series of pamphlets (often published in daily papers or magazines) or were sold by subscription. Serialized e-books resort to these erstwhile marketing ploys. E-books may also help restore the balance between best-sellers and midlist authors and between fiction and textbooks. E-books are best suited to cater to niche markets, hitherto neglected by all major publishers.


III. Literature for the Millions


E-books are the quintessential “literature for the millions”. They are cheaper than even paperbacks. John Bell (competing with Dr. Johnson) published “The Poets of Great Britain” in 1777-83. Each of the 109 volumes cost six shillings (compared to the usual guinea or more). The Railway Library of novels (1,300 volumes) costs 1 shilling apiece only eight decades later. The price continued to dive throughout the next century and a half. E-books and POD are likely to do unto paperbacks what these reprints did to originals. Some reprint libraries specialized in public domain works, very much like the bulk of e-book offering nowadays.


The plunge in book prices, the lowering of barriers to entry due to new technologies and plentiful credit, the proliferation of publishers, and the cutthroat competition among booksellers was such that price regulation (cartel) had to be introduced. Net publisher prices, trade discounts, list prices were all anti-competitive inventions of the 19th century, mainly in Europe. They were accompanied by the rise of trade associations, publishers organizations, literary agents, author contracts, royalties agreements, mass marketing, and standardized copyrights.


The sale of print books over the Internet can be conceptualized as the continuation of mail order catalogues by virtual means. But e-books are different. They are detrimental to all these cosy arrangements. Legally, an e-book may not be considered to constitute a “book” at all. Existing contracts between authors and publishers may not cover e-books. The serious price competition they offer to more traditional forms of publishing may end up pushing the whole industry to re-define itself. Rights may have to be re-assigned, revenues re-distributed, contractual relationships re-thought. Moreover, e-books have hitherto been to print books what paperbacks are to hardcovers – re-formatted renditions. But more and more authors are publishing their books primarily or exclusively as e-books. E-books thus threaten hardcovers and paperbacks alike. They are not merely a new format. They are a new mode of publishing.


Every technological innovation was bitterly resisted by Luddite printers and publishers: stereotyping, the iron press, the application of steam power, mechanical typecasting and typesetting, new methods of reproducing illustrations, cloth bindings, machine-made paper, ready-bound books, paperbacks, book clubs, and book tokens. Without exception, they relented and adopted the new technologies to their considerable commercial advantage. It is no surprise, therefore, that publishers were hesitant to adopt the Internet, POD, and e-publishing technologies. The surprise lies in the relative haste with which they came to adopt it, egged on by authors and booksellers.


IV. Intellectual Pirates and Intellectual Property


Despite the technological breakthroughs that coalesced to form the modern printing press – printed books in the 17th and 18th centuries were derided by their contemporaries as inferior to their laboriously hand-made antecedents and to the incunabula. One is reminded of the current complaints about the new media (Internet, e-books), its shoddy workmanship, shabby appearance, and the rampant piracy. The first decades following the invention of the printing press, were, as the Encyclopedia Britannica puts it “a restless, highly competitive free for all … (with) enormous vitality and variety (often leading to) careless work”.


There were egregious acts of piracy – for instance, the illicit copying of the Aldine Latin “pocket books”, or the all-pervasive piracy in England in the 17th century (a direct result of over-regulation and coercive copyright monopolies). Shakespeare’s work was published by notorious pirates and infringers of emerging intellectual property rights. Later, the American colonies became the world’s centre of industrialized and systematic book piracy. Confronted with abundant and cheap pirated foreign books, local authors resorted to freelancing in magazines and lecture tours in a vain effort to make ends meet.


 A Brief History of the Book

English: Marshall McLuhan, Quentin Fiore: The Medium is the Massage (Spread from the book, page 34-35, original photo: Peter Moore) Published in 2001 by Ginko Press Inc., Corte Madera, CA, USA. ISBN: 1-58423-070-3 Magyar: Marshall McLuhan, Quentin Fiore: The Medium is the Massage (oldalpár a könyvből, 34-35 oldal, eredeti fotó: Peter Moore) Kiadó: Ginko Press Inc., 2001, Corte Madera, CA, USA. ISBN: 1-58423-070-3 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)



Pirates and unlicenced – and, therefore, subversive – publishers were prosecuted under a variety of monopoly and libel laws (and, later, under national security and obscenity laws). There was little or no difference between royal and “democratic” governments. They all acted ruthlessly to preserve their control of publishing. John Milton wrote his passionate plea against censorship, Areopagitica, in response to the 1643 licencing ordinance passed by Parliament. The revolutionary Copyright Act of 1709 in England established the rights of authors and publishers to reap the commercial fruits of their endeavours exclusively, though only for a prescribed period of time.


V. As Readership Expanded


The battle between industrial-commercial publishers (fortified by ever more potent technologies) and the arts and craftsmanship crowd never ceased and it is raging now as fiercely as ever in numerous discussion lists, fora, tomes, and conferences. William Morris started the “private press” movement in England in the 19th century to counter what he regarded as the callous commercialization of book publishing. When the printing press was invented, it was put to commercial use by private entrepreneurs (traders) of the day. Established “publishers” (monasteries), with a few exceptions (e.g., in Augsburg, Germany and in Subiaco, Italy) shunned it and regarded it as a major threat to culture and civilization. Their attacks on printing read like the litanies against self-publishing or corporate-controlled publishing today.


But, as readership expanded (women and the poor became increasingly literate), market forces reacted. The number of publishers multiplied relentlessly. At the beginning of the 19th century, innovative lithographic and offset processes allowed publishers in the West to add illustrations (at first, black and white and then in color), tables, detailed maps and anatomical charts, and other graphics to their books. Battles fought between publishers-librarians over formats (book sizes) and fonts (Gothic versus Roman) were ultimately decided by consumer preferences. Multimedia was born. The e-book will, probably, undergo a similar transition from being the static digital rendition of a print edition – to being a lively, colorful, interactive and commercially enabled creature.


The commercial lending library and, later, the free library were two additional reactions to increasing demand. As early as the 18th century, publishers and booksellers expressed the fear that libraries will cannibalize their trade. Two centuries of accumulated experience demonstrate that the opposite has happened. Libraries have enhanced book sales and have become a major market in their own right.


VI. The State of Subversion


Publishing has always been a social pursuit and depended heavily on social developments, such as the spread of literacy and the liberation of minorities (especially, of women). As every new format matures, it is subjected to regulation from within and from without. E-books (and, by extension, digital content on the Web) will be no exception. Hence the recurrent and current attempts at regulation.


Every new variant of content packaging was labeled as “dangerous” at its inception. The Church (formerly the largest publisher of bibles and other religious and “earthly” texts and the upholder and protector of reading in the Dark Ages) castigated and censored the printing of “heretical” books (especially the vernacular bibles of the Reformation) and restored the Inquisition for the specific purpose of controlling book publishing. In 1559, it published the Index Librorum Prohibitorum (“Index of Prohibited Books”). A few (mainly Dutch) publishers even went to the stake (a habit worth reviving, some current authors would say…). European rulers issued proclamations against “naughty printed books” (of heresy and sedition). The printing of books was subject to licencing by the Privy Council in England. The very concept of copyright arose out of the forced registration of books in the register of the English Stationer’s Company (a royal instrument of influence and intrigue). Such obligatory registration granted the publisher the right to exclusively copy the registered book (often, a class of books) for a number of years – but politically restricted printable content, often by force. Freedom of the press and free speech are still distant dreams in many corners of the earth. The Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), the V-chip and other privacy invading, dissemination inhibiting, and censorship imposing measures perpetuate a veteran if not so venerable tradition.


VII. The More it Changes


The more it changes, the more it stays the same. If the history of the book teaches us anything it is that there are no limits to the ingenuity with which publishers, authors, and booksellers, re-invent old practices. Technological and marketing innovations are invariably perceived as threats – only to be adopted later as articles of faith. Publishing faces the same issues and challenges it faced five hundred years ago and responds to them in much the same way. Yet, every generation believes its experiences to be unique and unprecedented. It is this denial of the past that casts a shadow over the future. Books have been with us since the dawn of civilization, millennia ago. In many ways, books constitute our civilization. Their traits are its traits: resilience, adaptation, flexibility, self re-invention, wealth, communication. We would do well to accept that our most familiar artifacts – books – will never cease to amaze us.


Source






The post A Brief History of the Book appeared first on Robert JR Graham.